September 9, 2009

The other shoe is about to drop – preparing for uncertain times

Introduction

Imagine this situation: All of the media outlets have gone to commercial-free coverage. They are reporting that the Dow has dropped 2,000 points and trading has been suspended on Wall Street.

The Chinese, along with other countries have transferred their reserves from the US Dollar. Oil futures climb $50 a barrel in hours. A national bank holiday shuts down the financial system on Main Street. Within 24 hours the grocery stores are cleared out of all food stocks. The gas pumps dry up in 12 hours.

Trucks delivering goods are stuck at truck stops waiting on fuel that may not be available in days; 18-wheelers that have enough fuel to get back home are doing so, with the trailer left on the side of the road. Inner city areas are turning into war zones with looting and random acts of violence occurring between rival gangs.

The Interstate System becomes a parking lot with the suburbanites trying to “get out of Dodge” (G.O.O.D.). With no more fuel supplies people become stranded and forced to flee on foot, with panicked people who are usually rational and moral, now acting immorally and irrationally; doing what it takes to get their family to perceived safety.

Moral of the story is simple – given an emergency where you will be cut off from the comfort of the complex supply chain, utility grid, and police protection, could you take care of you and your family? Could you do it for a week, for a month, or even a year?

I know this has more than likely unnerved you. Do not panic! Simple planning can help you get where you can take care of yourself and your family. We are going to try to guide you step-by-step in your path to peace of mind. Look at this plan as purchasing an insurance plan. You pay hundreds per month to insure yourself and your belongings, and investing in preparations may be the best policy you ever purchase. This will be covered in several areas:

* Money
* Food Storage
* Security
* Self-Sustaining Lifestyle

It may be advised to keep your preparations confidential. Use discretion as much as possible when you make your acquisitions. Also note that there will be some sacrifice in making your targets.

The items we are suggesting to buy in this document are costly, but remember what we said earlier about this being an insurance policy for the safety and security of your household. Try to think of others that may join you if they are displaced by a disaster. We will cover this in detail throughout this work.

Read more

September 2, 2009

An Open Letter To A Dying Planet

An Open Letter To A Dying Planet
By Saleem Rana

It will soon be a new year and we are almost a quarter of the way into the first decade of the new century. Where are we heading now? What will happen to the human race? Will it overcome its shadow side and migrate to the stars, a vision of Star Trek, or will it annihilate itself, the way the Roman empire, the greatest empire on earth, the pride of the ancient world, whose brilliant legislature, political organization, unrivaled military might, grand architecture, innovative engineering and artistic achievements have now been relegated to dusty archives?

The future of humanity depends on awareness of its plight. Without awareness, extinction is highly possible. With awareness, a critical mass for change can happen.

At no time in the last ten thousand years since the Ice Age have we exhibited such astonishing genius or such abominable disregard for sentient life. Somehow we have arrived here in this new century despite the worldwide suffering and traumatic events of the past one.

The greatest peril facing our species may be the overpopulation of our planet. Our very success with science and technology to improve the survival of all human life may be our downfall. The current rate of growth is about 1.9 percent a year. This may not sound like an alarming figure but it means that the population doubles every forty years. Right now it is around 6 billion. By the end of this century it will be around 40 billion. By then, it will be too late to do anything. That is the current lifetime left for humanity unless we become sophisticated enough to migrate to the stars.

Can we do it? Can we survive as a species? In order to answer that question, let us look at the greatest century ever in the history of the human race, the twentieth century. Unless we learn from our mistakes, we will be condemned to repeat them. But this time, we may not have a second chance.

The journey of the exploration of inner space began in the twentieth century. Sigmund Freud explored the unconscious, linked neurosis to the sex drive, and sought to heal the past by examining it in the present. Initially shocked by his ideas, those who read and understood him then spread a new burst of awareness.

In the famous painting, The Scream, Edvard Munch, a Norwegian artist who followed the tradition of French Impressionism, epitomized the anxiety and terror of the human psyche, the grief that arose from recognizing the personal and collective pain in the unconscious mind.

Pablo Picasso’s Cubism and Salvador Dali’s Surrealism created more waves of awareness about the anguish of the individual soul tormented by the traumas of life, and this imagery of suppressed emotional pain spread even faster through the medium of surrealistic films.

But while a small proportion of artists were making public the existential angst of humanity, other great minds were marveling at the mystery of the universe. Albert Einstein declared that energy and matter could be exchanged, x-rays showed the insides of a living human being, and microscopes and telescopes started to reveal the world of the very small and the very large. In addition, amongst numerous other wonders, science developed contraceptives, giving couples the chance to experience intimacy without the need to raise a new family.

Human genius was on the rise everywhere. Startling discoveries were being made in the sciences that were radically transforming the very essence of human understanding and the way society functioned. But the most startling of them all, was the power of the atom. By isolating, smashing and splitting atoms, an enormous power of unimaginable magnitude had been discovered.

After the first atomic bomb was tested in Los Alamos, the chief scientist Robert Oppenheimer quoted a passage in the Bhagavad-Gita, “Now I have become death and the destroyer of worlds.” The scientists were shocked at what they had discovered, but the use to which the power was put changed the entire history of humanity for the worse. The powers of the Western World opted for the short-term benefit of defeating Japan, but did not then realize that it had introduced an unfathomable nightmare of weapons proliferation that could destroy every living creature in the known universe.

Before the nuclear shadow fell on humankind, the most horrific cause of anxiety in the collective unconscious, total war had already been invented.

The first world war escalated human territoriality and aggression to an industrial scale. The mechanical energy that had been used to transform humanity from an agrarian and localized population to an industrialized and globally expanding population was now used for wholesale slaughter. Man became the victim of his own machines. Armaments could be manufactured on a large and rapid scale. The lethal invention of the gun now became the even deadlier machine gun; in the few seconds it took to kill one man, now a dozen could be killed.

But this was only the beginning of mass-scale suffering because never in the history of humankind had evil men had the means to exploit and destroy so many people so efficiently.

Joseph Stalin initiated the collective farms of communism. Under his interpretation of the ideology of communism, 22 million people died in the labor camps of his slave empire.

The Japanese invaded China in 1937 and slaughtered 60 million Chinese.

Adolph Hitler promised the German people the restoration of their honor and self-respect after the humiliation of Germany’s earlier defeat and the penalty imposed upon them by their victorious enemies. Nazi Germany slaughtered another 50 million. 27 million of these were Soviet citizens. 6 million of them were Jewish people, who were systematically hunted and captured, stripped of all human dignity and murdered with ruthless efficiency.

Yet the havoc that was unleashed by the machinery of the industrial age was only the beginning of the flagrant abuse of raw power.

The second world war had leveled down many previously flourishing cities through continuous bombing over months like Rotterdam, Dresden, and Tokyo, but when the atomic bomb was dropped by America on Japan, two whole cities, Hiroshima and Nagasaki were leveled in seconds.

Despite the overwhelming violence of these horrors, human cruelty continued unabated on a scale that had never ever before been witnessed on the face of creation.

Mao-tse Tung promising the Chinese people “a great leap forward,” publicly humiliated landowners, initiated widescale persecution and torture on anyone who disagreed with him and gave the land to the peasants. These peasants overworked the soil, creating a famine of immense proportions and 30 million Chinese starved to death.

In Cambodia, Pol Pot, waged a war on his own people and one out of three Cambodians was murdered.

In Cambodia, Viet Nam, Rwanda, and Kosovo the bloodbath was relentless.

War had become remote, precise, and deadly. Human beings had become the cruelest and most savage creatures ever to have walked upon the earth. Even the Dinosaurs that once roamed the earth in the distant past did not have the same vicious intensity. They killed to survive, but human beings killed because of wounded pride. Intelligence enlisted to satisfy dark human drives created unspeakable suffering.

Yet somehow, remarkably, humanity, despite its new penchant for efficient slaughter, as a whole, still continued to progress.

Around 1950, America’s statue of liberty became a symbol of hope for immigrants from around the world. With their zestful energy they infused renewed life into the country. Some of these immigrants were the greatest scientists in the world, including Albert Einstein; others transformed the New World through backbreaking labor. The result of this influx of brilliance and massive effort transformed the United States into a formidable economic and military power. To the rest of the world, exhausted and depleted by the aftermath of war, everything appeared bigger and better in America. It boasted taller buildings, bigger cars, a vast network of roads and railways, and a love for innovation and technology. America became the new hope, its vision of a promising new humanity dominating the rest of the world.

However a migrational shift existed across the whole world. Those who could not travel abroad moved in large numbers from the country to the city. Calcutta became overwhelmed with a population of 10 million people; Tokyo swelled as millions of country people became urban dwellers; and in the 18,000 square miles of Mexico city, an urban sprawl developed around the fringes of the city and discarded waste materials spread outwards.

All over the world, in rich and poor countries, cities became highly attractive: a place for greater wealth, broader freedom, and more excitement. Running out of room, cities began to grow upwards, becoming vertical, climate-controlled, and neon-lit. Their growth was due to a flight from the poverty experienced in the countryside and the lure of the promise of living in a consumer paradise. Shanty towns became common place around the fringes of many cities in the developing world, and the gap between the rich and the poor widened, with women becoming the poorest of the world’s citizens.

Europe having exhausted its resources and population in colonization and total war now experienced an influx of the people whom they had subjugated. In the spread of imperialism, ties had been made with the conquered people. For example, Asians from India, Pakistan, East Africa, and Trinidad made England their new home. In Wembley, North London, the local Hindu people imported a magnificent temple, stone by precious stone, from their native country.

In the United States, too, migration continued, not only from overseas and from the country to the city, but also from its borders. Los Angeles has the largest Mexican population outside Mexico city. Preserving their cultural traditions, the growing Hispanic population is slowly changing the European mix of America into a Latino one.

After its victory in the Second World War, the United States became the strongest economy on the earth. Besides the influx of new ideas and labor from immigrants, the emphasis on science and technology created a revolution in telecommunications. Radio, television, Hollywood movies, satellites, and advertising from America influenced the rest of the world. American celebrities became popular everywhere, from the songs of Elvis Presley to the fights of Muhammad Ali. A celebrity in America usually became an international celebrity. Towards the last decade of the century, America initiated the network of computers that we now know as the world wide web.

Communications created the first sense of a global community. Everyone was able to see everyone else and share common human interests and values. 200 million people watched the wedding of Princess Diana and a little over two million watched her funeral. During the final World Cup Soccer match in 1998, 2 billion people watched it on television. With the advent of the mobile telephone, anybody on any street in the world could talk to anyone else anywhere on the planet.

Besides the thrill of watching each other, the human race also had a chance to watch itself. Perhaps the greatest benefit of the lunar expeditions was not pictures of a dead moon but the pictures of a living planet. Humanity began to see itself for the first time as a single species, rather than a collection of warring factions. From space, the planet looked like a big, blue marble floating in inky darkness. People noticed more ocean than land, the absence of any political borders, and the possibility of multinational friendships and the sharing of common experiences. Besides seeing itself, humanity also vicariously experienced the thrill of watching their home planet as a whole. Listening in to the astronauts live broadcast, they shared in their sense of awe.

While the balance of power shifted from Europe to North America, it then slowly began to shift from the Atlantic to the Pacific Rim. American supremacy was being challenged by the countries of the East.

One thousand years ago, Japan was isolated; in the 20th Century it started becoming an economic super-power.

Similarly, other “tiger economies” also erupted around the Pacific, with Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore creating cities that rivaled the cosmopolitan grandeur of North America. In Singapore, for example, the island has become a metropolis whose breathtaking skyline is only rivaled by that of Shanghai.

One thousand years ago, the silk roads to China led to the most refined civilization on earth. China had already invented printing, paper currency, the compass, and gunpowder. In the 21st Century, it is poised to become the new global super-power, because of huge foreign investments, particularly from Chinese living overseas, as well as its population of one billion people.

The greatest dilemma of the future is not our powerlessness, but our power, and not our stupidity, but our immense intelligence.

Initially, we used industrial and nuclear power to create carnage that made the terror of Genghis Khan look mild.

Later, despite whole populations being destroyed, we built up cities, explored space and our own minds and hearts, migrated closer to each other, and shared technology and communication.

In our most glorious century, we have known both the agony of wide scale destruction and the joy of rebirth.

We have seen what we all look like and shared our fondest cultural snapshots with each other.

It seems that in the last century of the last millennium everything changed for humanity.
Sigmund Freud exposed our dark human instincts. Evil men dominated whole nations and slaughtered millions. Conquering people began to coexist with those that they had once subjugated. Economic power shifted from one part of the globe to another. And the rate of knowledge expanded at a bewildering pace. Never before had humankind experienced so much, learned so much, and been exposed to so much raw power that it had learned to harness from nature.

In this new century we find ourselves experiencing an expansion of the cultural and global patterns we created earlier, and our greatest strength, our raw power and unsurpassed intelligence, can also turn out be our greatest weakness.

What will happen to humanity? Will the currently existing outbreaks of war expand to become an Armageddon? Will political, economic, military, industrial, and religious rivalry outweigh any common sense? Will we simply overpopulate and pollute ourselves to death? Will the accelerating economic inequality and exploitation of natural resources create its own brand of chaos? Will prevailing human helplessness at the size of our global problems overshadow us or will we choose to become more aware, educated, cooperative and communicative?

Humanity’s future has become extreme: it faces either an apocalypse or evolution to a species that will live in space-stations and travel in star-ships. Everything hangs in the balance based on what we do this century. We have survived the past, but if the same naive patterns continue into the future, we will not make it.

Ultimately, even if we can overcome our individual and collective shadows, even if human decency can outweigh primitive aggression, even if human collaboration is finally possible and human genius is allowed full self-expression, we have one last hurdle to overcome, otherwise the past millennium will have been the last one for our species. Each decade, the stakes are rising. The warning of futurists has fallen on deaf ears. The probability of perishing in the coming millenium is no longer science fiction, it is becoming observable fact to even the most indifferent and ill-informed people.

A time will come when we will need a new home. No force on earth can stop over-population other than widespread devastation due to belligerence or the depletion of limited resources. Our only possible hope is to become star travelers.

Will we be ready to make the new leap to the stars or will the light of human genius, hindered by territorial animal disputes, fail to rise to a level that will save our race from oblivion?

Instant communication and rapid travel has shrunk the world. Can we now use our global brain, the Internet, to communicate in a meaningful way to create a collective change in the consciousness of humanity? We owe this not to ourselves but to generations yet to come. Positive action has to happen this century, a critical mass of awareness has to be reached, otherwise the resulting chaos will be beyond control.

In the past, according to the literature of various traditions, avatars would show up to guide us to wisdom, but we persecuted them. As witnessed by the atrocities of the past century, our shallow intentions and brute instincts are still with us. The only hope for humanity is a collective renaissance of awareness, because only the birth of a widespread intelligence will prevent catastrophe. An expansion of mind and heart has to happen at a critical mass.

Like you, I am no-one, but with you, we can be everyone. Please pass this message on. Throw this message in the bottle back into the ocean. A thousand years from now, one of our descendants will read it and be grateful for the life that they are now living; and it will probably not be on earth anymore. If you had the perseverance to read to this line, don’t click “delete”, click “forward.” Here is why: The future can no longer be a revalidation of the past. There is too much at stake. Intelligence has evolved us from the apes, but the lack of it’s positive application may also be our nemesis. Alone as individuals, we will not have much of a chance of saving our planet, but collectively, there is no limit to human genius. Can we evolve to a species that colonizes space or will we perish before we get there?

We are living on a dying planet, and you and I can sound the alarm bell. The Internet can make this possible. With each passing decade, the price of human ignorance will be extracting a heavier toll.

The antidote to apathy and withdrawal is awareness, which is the reason for this essay. Paraphrasing the words of Mahatma Gandhi, we can be the change we wish to see in the world. It begins with the click of a mouse button.

Unless sleeping humanity begins to wake up, it’s emerging power of numbers, economic expansion, scientific exploration, and technological advances will be used for extinction not evolution. As you can see, we have already grossly abused the power that we possess; there is no guarantee that we will become wiser in the new year and in the new decade which will soon be upon us. Our power in all areas is expanding as our knowledge expands. Military toys are becoming deadlier; viruses are adapting to our most potent antibiotics and becoming unstoppably virulent; and ideological fanaticism is reaching a point where nuclear proliferation is not possible to contain. Awareness right now is our only hope. Unless, through awareness, humanity as a whole is willing to give up its conscious and unconscious hostilities, disaster is inevitable.

We can use the Internet to spread these ideas to every home and corporation and government in the world. Only 6 degrees of separation lie between us and anyone else in the world.

Without awareness, positive change is not possible. We owe it to generations yet unborn to spread awareness. This is the meme that will save our species. Awareness can blossom into knowledge and knowledge into positive action; but without awareness; through mere blind, reflexive living, chaos will erupt as surely as night follows day, or one century follows the next.

Please send this article to one or more people or post it somewhere. You can click “delete” or “forward.” In a strange way, the fate of the world may have something to do with us. You and I will probably never meet, but we share a common bond. Despite all our differences, we are all connected. It is our greatest value. Let us act, each in our own small way, on an impulse, no matter how faint, to help the greater good.

Saleem Rana would love to share his inspiring ideas with you. Hunting everywhere for a life worth living? Discover the life of your dreams. His book Never Ever Give Up tells you how. It is offered at no cost as a way to help YOU succeed. http://www.theempoweredsoul.com/enter.html

Copyright 2004 Saleem Rana. Please feel free to pass this
article on to your friends, or use it in your ezine or
newsletter. It’s a shareware article.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Saleem_Rana
http://EzineArticles.com/?An-Open-Letter-To-A-Dying-Planet&id=388768

July 17, 2009

No Economy left to Recover

Can The Economy Recover?

By Paul Craig Roberts

July 15, 2009 “Information Clearing House” — -There is no economy left to recover. The US manufacturing economy was lost to offshoring and free trade ideology. It was replaced by a mythical “New Economy.”

The “New Economy” was based on services. Its artificial life was fed by the Federal Reserve’s artificially low interest rates, which produced a real estate bubble, and by “free market” financial deregulation, which unleashed financial gangsters to new heights of debt leverage and fraudulent financial products.

The real economy was traded away for a make-believe economy. When the make-believe economy collapsed, Americans’ wealth in their real estate, pensions, and savings collapsed dramatically while their jobs disappeared.

The debt economy caused Americans to leverage their assets. They refinanced their homes and spent the equity. They maxed out numerous credit cards. They worked as many jobs as they could find. Debt expansion and multiple family incomes kept the economy going.

And now suddenly Americans can’t borrow in order to spend. They are over their heads in debt. Jobs are disappearing. America’s consumer economy, approximately 70% of GDP, is dead. Those Americans who still have jobs are saving against the prospect of job loss. Millions are homeless. Some have moved in with family and friends; others are living in tent cities.

Meanwhile the US government’s budget deficit has jumped from $455 billion in 2008 to $2,000 billion this year, with another $2,000 billion on the books for
2010. And President Obama has intensified America’s expensive war of aggression in Afghanistan and initiated a new war in Pakistan.

There is no way for these deficits to be financed except by printing money or by further collapse in stock markets that would drive people out of equity into bonds.

The US government’s budget is 50% in the red. That means half of every dollar the federal government spends must be borrowed or printed. Because of the worldwide debacle caused by Wall Street’s financial gangsterism, the world needs its own money and hasn’t $2 trillion annually to lend to Washington.

As dollars are printed, the growing supply adds to the pressure on the dollar’s role as reserve currency. Already America’s largest creditor, China, is admonishing Washington to protect China’s investment in US debt and lobbying for a new reserve currency to replace the dollar before it collapses. According to various reports, China is spending down its holdings of US dollars by acquiring gold and stocks of raw materials and energy.

The price of one ounce gold coins is $1,000 despite efforts of the US government to hold down the gold price. How high will this price jump when the rest of the world decides that the bankruptcy of “the world’s only superpower” is at hand?

And what will happen to America’s ability to import not only oil, but also the manufactured goods on which it is import-dependent?

When the over-supplied US dollar loses the reserve currency role, the US will no longer be able to pay for its massive imports of real goods and services with pieces of paper. Overnight, shortages will appear and Americans will be poorer.

full article

July 13, 2009

Commercial alarm: Mall, office building owners defaulting as loan rates double

By ALAN ZIBEL

The Associated Press

Sunday, July 12, 2009

WASHINGTON — Owners of shopping malls, hotels and offices are defaulting on their loans at an alarming rate, and the commercial real estate market is not expected to hit bottom for three more years, industry experts warned Thursday.

“The commercial real estate time bomb is ticking,” said Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y., who heads the congressional Joint Economic Committee.

Delinquency rates on commercial loans have doubled in the past year to 7 percent as more companies downsize and retailers close their doors, according to the Federal Reserve. Small and regional banks face the greatest risk of severe losses from commercial real estate loans.

The commercial real estate market’s fortunes are tied closely to the economy, especially unemployment, which hit 9.5 percent in June. As people lose their jobs, or have their hours reduced, they cut back on spending, which hurts retailers, and take fewer trips, which hits hotels.

Funding for commercial loans virtually shut down last year as the financial system unraveled. Industry executives say financing is still extremely difficult to obtain, even for financially healthy properties.

While that may seem like an abstract problem, it has real-world consequences. New construction projects have come to a virtual standstill. That means reduced tax revenue for local governments and fewer construction jobs, said Jeffrey DeBoer, chief executive of the Real Estate Roundtable, an industry group.

The commercial property industry is “not going to turn around until consumers and businesses start spending money again,” he said.

Total losses in securities backed by commercial property loans could be as high as $90 billion in the coming years, according to Deutsche Bank analyst Richard Parkus. He says even more losses – up to $140 billion – are expected from construction loans made by regional and local banks, rather than those sold as securities held by investors.

“We believe the bottom is several years away,” Parkus told lawmakers.

read more

July 13, 2009

Doom in the Wall Street Journal

This doomer forecast is surpringly from an article by Peggy Noonan on the utter inadequacy of Sarah Palin as featured in the WJS.

“Here’s why all this matters. The world is a dangerous place. It has never been more so, or more complicated, more straining of the reasoning powers of those with actual genius and true judgment. This is a time for conservative leaders who know how to think.

Here are a few examples of what we may face in the next 10 years: a profound and prolonged American crash, with the admission of bankruptcy and the spread of deep social unrest; one or more American cities getting hit with weapons of mass destruction from an unknown source; faint glimmers of actual secessionist movements as Americans for various reasons and in various areas decide the burdens and assumptions of the federal government are no longer attractive or legitimate.

The era we face, that is soon upon us, will require a great deal from our leaders. They had better be sturdy. They will have to be gifted. There will be many who cannot, and should not, make the cut. Now is the time to look for those who can. And so the Republican Party should get serious, as serious as the age, because that is what a grown-up, responsible party—a party that deserves to lead—would do.

It’s not a time to be frivolous, or to feel the temptation of resentment, or the temptation of thinking next year will be more or less like last year, and the assumptions of our childhoods will more or less reign in our future. It won’t be that way.

We are going to need the best.”

source

July 13, 2009

When Will The Recovery Begin? Never

When Will The Recovery Begin? Never
by Robert Reich

The so-called “green shoots” of recovery are turning brown in the scorching summer sun. In fact, the whole debate about when and how a recovery will begin is wrongly framed. On one side are the V-shapers who look back at prior recessions and conclude that the faster an economy drops, the faster it gets back on track. And because this economy fell off a cliff late last fall, they expect it to roar to life early next year. Hence the V shape.

Unfortunately, V-shapers are looking back at the wrong recessions. Focus on those that started with the bursting of a giant speculative bubble and you see slow recoveries. The reason is asset values at bottom are so low that investor confidence returns only gradually.

That’s where the more sober U-shapers come in. They predict a more gradual recovery, as investors slowly tiptoe back into the market.

Personally, I don’t buy into either camp. In a recession this deep, recovery doesn’t depend on investors. It depends on consumers who, after all, are 70 percent of the U.S. economy. And this time consumers got really whacked. Until consumers start spending again, you can forget any recovery, V or U shaped.

Problem is, consumers won’t start spending until they have money in their pockets and feel reasonably secure. But they don’t have the money, and it’s hard to see where it will come from. They can’t borrow. Their homes are worth a fraction of what they were before, so say goodbye to home equity loans and refinancings. One out of ten home owners is under water — owing more on their homes than their homes are worth. Unemployment continues to rise, and number of hours at work continues to drop. Those who can are saving. Those who can’t are hunkering down, as they must.

Eventually consumers will replace cars and appliances and other stuff that wears out, but a recovery can’t be built on replacements. Don’t expect businesses to invest much more without lots of consumers hankering after lots of new stuff. And don’t rely on exports. The global economy is contracting.

My prediction, then? Not a V, not a U. But an X. This economy can’t get back on track because the track we were on for years — featuring flat or declining median wages, mounting consumer debt, and widening insecurity, not to mention increasing carbon in the atmosphere — simply cannot be sustained.

The X marks a brand new track — a new economy. What will it look like? Nobody knows. All we know is the current economy can’t “recover” because it can’t go back to where it was before the crash. So instead of asking when the recovery will start, we should be asking when and how the new economy will begin. More on this to come.

Robert Reich was the nation’s 22nd Secretary of Labor and is a professor at the University of California at Berkeley. His latest book is “Supercapitalism.”

February 15, 2009

Officially “Out Of Control” – Jim Sinclair

Posted: Feb 14 2009     By: Jim Sinclair
Dear Extended Family,

I sent you a certain few emails that I consider to be the most important communications issued in my career that started in 1958.

I am the son of what I know to have been the greatest Lone Wolf trader in Wall Street history ever, Bertram J. Seligman. He was a past master at his business and believed to be a market sensitive. I apprenticed to him, learned from him and inherited some of his ability, not all however.

From this background of experience understanding and sensitivity the following flows.

The emails of note:

1. Said, “This is it.”
2. Said, “It is now.”

This communication is to inform you as of 2/13/09, “It is totally out of control.” There is no longer any means of reversal of the beginning of the final phase of the downward spiral now solidly set in motion.

For your sake, protect yourselves immediately.

Be prepared for disruptions in distribution common to hyperinflation.

1. You should have already distanced yourself from your financial agents. If you haven’t you are headed for significant displeasure and strain.
2. Make sure you stay three months ahead on necessary items that could experience distribution delays such as prescribed medicine and preferred foods.
3. Even though real estate is far from a buy, if you can afford a second home outside of major cities it would serve a good purpose.
4. Own gold.
5. Consider that good gold shares of non-US companies incorporated in a non-US country operating in third country, traded on multiple exchanges are a means of money expatriation legally and in broad daylight if required.
6. For currencies, all you can do is own a spread held by a true custodial ship wherever that might be.

Simply said, as of Friday February 13th, 2009 the situation is in confirmed “Out of Control” mode as this well engineered downward spiral enters into a terminal phase.

The motive was profit and degree of the disintegration caused in the pursuit of this goal was not anticipated.

The key event was when Lehman was flushed – all hell broke loose. The hell cannot be contained in any practical manner.

I seek nothing of you, but the protection of yourselves.

Respectfully yours,
Jim

February 8, 2009

An Energy Boomtown Goes Bust

Even as the national economy went into a tailspin, resource-rich towns like Parachute, Colo., were doing fine. Then natural gas prices began to plunge, and the pain began to rise.

By Nicholas Riccardi
February 7, 2009

Reporting from Parachute, Colo. — Robert Knight was about to install wireless transmitters on eight new drilling rigs joining the thousands that dot the ravines and mesas here when he got the startling news: All but one of the rigs were coming down.

Falling natural gas prices had led energy firms to abruptly curtail their work here last month, battering the last sector of the U.S. economy that had prospered despite the recession.

“Boy, it was quick,” said Knight, who has a business installing communication equipment and who serves as the town manager. “It was like the difference between night and day.”

The sky-high oil and natural gas prices that burdened consumers during much of the decade were a blessing to residents of this tiny town and other energy-rich communities from Alaska to Arkansas. Even as the national economy went into a tailspin in early 2008, home prices in boomtowns like Parachute kept rising and the streets were packed with shiny new pickups.

But prices suddenly began to drop in September — natural gas is down 50% from its peak and oil has plummeted from a high of $136 per barrel to about $40.

The plunge brought some relief to recession-racked consumers, but has raised anxieties in Parachute, a town of 1,500 that bears the scars of busts that followed previous energy booms.

In better times, “you couldn’t find a hotel room, you couldn’t find a campground, you couldn’t find a place to rent,” said Laura Diaz, the town planning clerk. That’s changing fast.

full article: here

January 28, 2009

Peak oil? Global warming? No, it’s ‘Boomsday!’

Five reasons ‘population explosion’ is world’s biggest economic problem

By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch

Here’s how an exploding population will remain the key variable driving all other major economic issues in the next four short decades:

1. Global wars … over food, water and energy

Five years ago Fortune reported on “The Pentagon’s Weather Nightmare.” Yes, from inside our military comes a warning of “the mother of all national security issues.” As “the planet’s carrying capacity shrinks, an ancient pattern reemerges: the eruption of desperate all-out wars over food, water, and energy supplies.” But ask yourself: What if nations prioritized population control policies to minimize growth and reduce demand?

2. ‘Global warming’ … and nuclear threats

Will it work? In the latest Foreign Policy magazine, environmental economist Bill McKibben, author of “The End of Nature,” warns: “It might already be too late … to save the planet from a climate catastrophe.” The International Energy Agency’s answer is more supply to feed exploding demand: The world must spend “$45 trillion to build 1,400 nuclear power plants and vastly expand wind power” in order to “halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.” Their supply-side obsession assumes three billion more people. But what if we focused on cutting demand by stabilizing world population at 6 billion?

3. ‘Peak oil’ … versus ‘peak population’

Experts warn that “The Age of Oil” is over. Soon the marginal cost of extracting a barrel will equal the sale price. We are on the downside of the bell curve. Special interests like Exxon-Mobil and the Saudis disagree.

But check sites like LifeAftertheOilCrash.net: “Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely respected geologists, physicists, bankers and investors in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global ‘peak oil.’” Warning: We’re near the tipping point: Stabilize population or self-destruct.

4. Alternative energies, ‘political will’ and lobbyists

Wall Street, Washington and Corporate America hustle the myth that we must become “energy independent.” History suggests narrow special-interest lobbyists will dull the “political will to act” till we pass the point of no return. Our population will grow from 300 million to 400 million by 2050, but the rest of the world will add another 3 billion, with all demanding more economic resources to meet burgeoning demands for energy, food and water. If the world’s population isn’t addressed, we’ll be outnumbered and outgunned.

5. The mythological math of ‘economic growth’

Economic equations stumble on bogus data. Last spring political historian Kevin Phillips wrote a brilliant Harper’s article “Numbers Racket” warning us that “the economy is worse than we know.” Politicians use “deceptive statistics” to sell “Americans that the U.S. economy is stronger, fairer, more productive, more dominant, and richer with opportunity than it really is. The corruption has tainted the very measures that most shape public perception of the economy.”

Making matters worse, economists are part of this conspiracy, tacitly endorsing government propaganda about progress.

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January 1, 2009

Experts Estimate 200,000 Stores Will Shut in 2009 as Recession Deepens

Retailers were hoping against hope that door-busting sales could salvage the holiday shopping season. It didn’t happen.

The recession and factors like bad weather over the last two weeks contributed to the slowest retail holiday season in 38 years. With such dismal shopping numbers, Strategic Resource Group estimates that 160,000 stores will have gone out of business in 2008 and 200,000 more will shut down in 2009.

“We’re going to close malls, we’re going to close chains, we’re going to close stores,” said Howard Davidowitz, the chairman of retail consulting firm Davidowitz & Associates. “The American standard of living is changing forever.”

Analysts estimate that 2,000 to 3,000 malls will go bankrupt by June 2009 as big chains like KB Toys, Linens n’ Things and the Sharper Image go out of business entirely, and other big-name stores, like Ann Taylor, Talbots and Foot Locker shut dozens of low-performing locations. Even huge department stores, like Dillards, Saks and Nordstrom are scaling back.

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